US oil prices are under intense pressure as the Iran war enters its third week, with fresh damage to oil infrastructure and blocked shipping lanes continuing to constrain global supply. Analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast average US pump prices reaching $3.85 per gallon Monday, while $4 gasoline remains a realistic near-term scenario. The conflict is having a direct and increasingly severe impact on American consumers’ daily lives.
The price spiral began with the February 28 launch of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which immediately disrupted global oil markets and ignited a wave of price increases. Since then, the national gasoline average has climbed 23% to $3.70 from a starting point below $3 per gallon. Each week of continued fighting has added new layers of uncertainty to an energy market already stretched thin.
Friday’s US assault on Kharg Island, the linchpin of Iran’s oil export processing operation, raised the stakes further for global supply. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of the world’s oil normally transits—is compounding the damage. Brent crude fluctuated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 after testing $100 the previous day.
California drivers have experienced some of the most extreme price increases in the nation, with state averages above $5 per gallon and Los Angeles stations in some areas charging over $8. Diesel prices for commercial transport sectors could climb to $5.15 per gallon across the country. Top executives at Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips have all communicated directly with the White House about escalating supply risks, with Exxon’s Darren Woods specifically warning that speculative traders could accelerate price hikes.
Wall Street started Monday on a cautiously optimistic note, with the S&P 500 rising roughly 1% following a temporary cooling in crude prices. Oil company stocks have surged to all-time highs since the conflict began, underlining how the crisis is creating a financial windfall for the energy sector. American households and businesses, however, continue to absorb an increasingly heavy economic toll from the prolonged energy disruption.
US Oil Prices Under Fire as Iran War Damages Oil Infrastructure and Shipping Lanes
