The long-awaited moment when renewable energy surpasses oil as the single largest energy source is not expected until the late 2040s, according to BP’s latest annual outlook. The report increases the long-term forecasts for oil and gas demand, a major revision that confirms the world is not moving fast enough to achieve the 2050 net-zero target.
BP’s revised projections for oil consumption in 2050 now stand at 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is also forecast to remain resilient, projected at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, the company has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now projecting 103 million b/d in 2030.
The sustained dominance of fossil fuels is linked to the heightened global focus on energy security, fueled by geopolitical turmoil. BP’s chief economist highlights that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with trade tariffs, are compelling nations to prioritize domestic supply. While this push could spur the creation of low-carbon ‘electrostates,’ the report warns that it also strongly incentivizes reliance on domestically produced fossil fuels over imported energy.
The slow rate of transition has dire climate implications. BP’s modeling indicates that cumulative carbon emissions are set to breach the critical 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company stresses that this extended delay significantly increases the economic and social costs required for future climate mitigation. To meet the net-zero goal, BP states that oil demand needs to drop aggressively to about 35 million b/d by 2050.
Despite the rapid growth in renewables—projected to rise from 10% of the primary energy supply in 2023 to 15% in 2035—oil is forecast to remain the largest single source, holding a 30% share in 2035. The fact that renewables are not expected to surpass oil until the late 2040s underscores the immense difficulty of fundamentally restructuring the global energy mix within the necessary climate timeline.
The Late Overtake: When Renewables Will Finally Surpass Oil (According to BP)
